Description

The ambitious Great Nicobar Infrastructure Project (GNIP), with a proposed investment of ?72,000 crore, aims to bring large-scale development to Great Nicobar Island. The project outlines the construction of a trans-shipment port, international airport, modern township, and power generation facilities. While the initiative promises economic and strategic advantages, it is under increasing scrutiny due to the region’s high seismic vulnerability.

Assessment Of Earthquake Threats In GNIP

The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report for the project, developed by Vimta Labs on behalf of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands Integrated Development Corporation, downplays the likelihood of a catastrophic earthquake. Drawing on a 2019 study by IIT-Kanpur, the EIA estimates that earthquakes of magnitude 9 or above have a return period of 420 to 750 years, while quakes exceeding magnitude 7.5 could occur every 80 to 120 years. These findings have led to the conclusion that the immediate threat is minimal.

Scientific Gaps And Concerns

However, seismic experts argue that the report fails to highlight key uncertainties, including a 2,000-year gap in the sediment record used in the IIT-Kanpur study. While the data was collected from South Andaman, the absence of region-specific research for Great Nicobar Island raises concerns, given the unique geological and tectonic features in the southern part of the archipelago.

Fault Zones And Earthquake Behavior

The region lies near the Andaman-Sumatra fault, a known zone of frequent and high-magnitude earthquakes. Scientists caution that undiscovered rupture zones between Andaman and Nicobar may lead to unexpected seismic activity. Earthquake recurrence in subduction zones is often non-linear, meaning long quiet phases can precede devastating seismic events. Additionally, land-level changes and localized fault systems on Great Nicobar could amplify the impact of any seismic disturbance.

Official And Expert Views On Seismic Preparedness

According to a senior official from the Ministry of Earth Sciences, no site-specific seismic studies were conducted for GNIP. While acknowledging the challenge of predicting earthquakes, the official emphasized the need to follow stringent seismic design codes. Meanwhile, the National Green Tribunal (NGT) has intervened, ordering a re-evaluation of the project in light of ecological sensitivity, biodiversity, and tribal community impacts.

Historical Seismic Devastation In Nicobar

The potential dangers are not hypothetical. During the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, triggered by a 9.2 magnitude quake near Indonesia, the Nicobar Islands suffered extensive damage. Over 1,500 people died in the islands alone, contributing to a nationwide death toll of approximately 10,000. The Andaman Trench, formed by the Indian Plate subducting beneath the Burmese Microplate, places this area in the highest seismic risk zone in the country.

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