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A new climate study led by Dr. René van Westen of Utrecht University, published in June 2025, highlights the serious risks of a breakdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) a vital component of Earth’s climate system. The research outlines how this collapse could bring severe winter cold to northern Europe, underscoring the far-reaching consequences of global warming and glacial melt.
Know About AMOC
The AMOC is a major ocean current system responsible for transporting warm tropical waters northward and returning colder water southward. This circulation plays a crucial role in regulating climate by distributing heat across the Atlantic. Any disruption in this flow could trigger significant shifts in weather patterns, especially across Europe and the North Atlantic region.
Freshwater From Melting Ice: A Growing Threat
Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, driven by human-induced climate change, is releasing large volumes of freshwater into the North Atlantic. This influx lowers the salinity and density of seawater, weakening the sinking motion that powers the AMOC. Without this process, the current could slow dramatically or collapse altogether.
Using Advanced Climate Models
To assess the potential impacts of an AMOC failure, researchers used the Community Earth System Model (CESM). By introducing a strong freshwater pulse into the model, they were able to simulate how such a collapse might unfold. This methodology helps correct earlier modeling biases that underestimated the likelihood of AMOC instability.
Extreme Cold In A Warmer World
The results of the simulation are alarming. Under a 2°C global warming scenario, cities like London could face average winter temperatures of just 1.9°C, with possible extremes dropping to -19.3°C. In Edinburgh, conditions could reach as low as -29.7°C, while Oslo might endure frigid averages of -16.5°C, plunging to -48°C during extreme cold spells.
Stark Seasonal Contrasts
Despite frigid winters, summers could still be warmer than pre-industrial levels. The study predicts a growing gap between the coldest and hottest seasons, potentially resulting in harsh winters followed by intense summer heatwaves. This extreme seasonal variability would pose new challenges for public health, agriculture, and energy use.
Global Ripple Effects
An AMOC collapse wouldn’t only affect Europe. The study suggests a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) a key driver of tropical weather systems. Such a shift could disrupt monsoon patterns in areas like India, West Africa, and the Amazon, reducing rainfall and affecting food and water security for millions.
Infrastructural And Social Concerns
The projected cold spells could overwhelm infrastructure across Europe, where systems are not built for extreme cold. Heating demand, transport disruptions, and power outages could become common. The findings highlight the urgent need for adaptation strategies to prepare for unpredictable climate shifts, even in regions currently considered climate-resilient.
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