The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed the arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala on May 24, 2025, marking an unusually early onset eight days ahead of the typical start date of June 1. This early arrival is significant as the southwest monsoon is crucial to India’s agriculture and water resources, contributing over 70% of the country’s annual rainfall. The last such early onset occurred in 2009, making this a rare meteorological event.
IMD’s Parameters For Declaring Monsoon Onset
The IMD uses a set of meteorological indicators to officially declare the arrival of the monsoon:
Rainfall Threshold: At least 60% of 14 designated weather stations in Kerala must record 2.5 mm or more rainfall for two consecutive days.
Wind Patterns: Persistent westerly winds at depths reaching up to 600 hPa, with speeds ranging between 15–20 knots, are necessary.
Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR): Satellite-based readings should show OLR values below 200 W/m², indicating sufficient moisture in the atmosphere.
Reason For Early Arrival Of Monsoon In 2025
The early onset is the result of several favourable atmospheric and oceanic conditions:
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): A key factor that enhances rainfall activity when in a favourable phase.
Mascarene High: A high-pressure zone in the south Indian Ocean that boosts monsoon winds along India’s west coast.
Intensified Convection: Enhanced upward movement of heat and moisture in the atmosphere, leading to increased rainfall.
Somali Jet Stream: Strong low-level winds that travel from East Africa across the Arabian Sea, supporting monsoon circulation.
Formation of Heat Lows: Low-pressure systems over the Arabian Sea that pull in moist air, enhancing rainfall.
Monsoon Trough: An extended area of low pressure that determines rainfall distribution during the season.
Regions First Impacted By Monsoon
On May 24, the southwest monsoon covered:
Southwest and east-central Bay of Bengal
Southern and central Arabian Sea
Kerala, Lakshadweep, and Mahe
Parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu
The early arrival in Karnataka, more than 10 days ahead of schedule, is particularly notable.
Monsoon Advancement Across India
By May 25, the monsoon had further progressed into:
West-central and east-central Arabian Sea
Goa and Maharashtra
Northeastern states like Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) continues to shift, indicating the expanding reach of the rainy season across the subcontinent.
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