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India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Changing Demographic Trends: Key Insights from the SRS 2021 Report

India Total Fertility Rate (TFR) And Changing Demographic Patterns

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India Total Fertility Rate (TFR) And Changing Demographic Patterns
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Description

The Registrar General of India (RGI) recently released the Sample Registration System (SRS) report for 2021, providing a comprehensive overview of the country's demographic landscape, including fertility rates, ageing trends, and marriage patterns. According to the report, India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) remained steady at 2.0 in 2021, the same as the previous year, reflecting a significant milestone in the nation's ongoing demographic transition.

The SRS 2021 report, released on May 7, 2025, offers critical insights into India’s demographic trends, filling the gap left by the delayed 2021 Census. It also comes in the wake of the government's 2024 interim budget announcement to form a high-powered committee to address the challenges of population growth, ageing, and workforce dynamics. This report is a vital resource for policymakers and researchers, providing granular data to guide decisions on healthcare, education, and social welfare.

Key Highlights Of SRS 2021 Report

Total Fertility Rate (TFR)

  • National Average: The national TFR stood at 2.0 in 2021, unchanged from 2020. This level is below the replacement rate of 2.1, indicating that India is moving towards a stable or potentially shrinking population in the long term.

  • State Variations: Highest TFR - Bihar reported the highest TFR at 3.0, reflecting persistent challenges in controlling population growth in some states. Lowest TFR - Delhi and West Bengal recorded the lowest TFR at 1.4, indicating advanced demographic transition and higher levels of urbanization and literacy.

  • TFR Below Replacement Level: Several major states, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Karnataka, reported TFRs below the replacement level, highlighting the shift towards smaller family norms.

  • TFR at or Near Replacement Level: Assam (2.1), Gujarat (2.0), and Haryana (2.0) are among the states nearing or at the replacement rate, reflecting diverse regional population dynamics.

Age Structure Shifts

India’s population is undergoing a significant age structure shift, reflecting changes in birth rates and life expectancy.

  • Decline in Young Population: The proportion of the population aged 0–14 years has decreased from 41.2% in 1971 to 24.8% in 2021, signaling reduced birth rates and smaller family sizes.

  • Growth in Working-Age Population: The 15–59 age group, which constitutes the core of the workforce, increased from 53.4% in 1971 to 66.2% in 2021, providing a potential demographic dividend for economic growth.

  • Rising Elderly Population: The proportion of individuals aged 60 and above rose from 6% in 1971 to 9% in 2021, while the 65+ age group grew from 5.3% to 5.9%, indicating a need for enhanced elderly care infrastructure.

State-wise Elderly Population Distribution

Highest Elderly Proportions:

  • Kerala: 14.4% (reflecting high life expectancy and low birth rates)

  • Tamil Nadu: 12.9%

  • Himachal Pradesh: 12.3%

Lowest Elderly Proportions

  • Bihar: 6.9%

  • Assam: 7%

  • Delhi: 7.1% (likely due to a younger, working-age migrant population)

Shifts in Marriage Trends

  • Increasing Age at Marriage for Women: The mean age at effective marriage for females rose from 19.3 years in 1990 to 22.5 years in 2021, reflecting greater educational attainment, increased workforce participation, and changing social norms.

About SRS Survey

  • Conducted by: Registrar General of India (RGI).

  • Scope: It is the largest demographic survey in India after the national Census, providing continuous and comprehensive demographic data.

  • Coverage: The survey covers approximately 8,842 sample units across various states, representing around 84 lakh individuals, making it a critical tool for demographic analysis.

Significance Of SRS 2021 Findings

The SRS 2021 report is a valuable tool for policymakers to address pressing demographic challenges, including:

  • Planning for a rapidly ageing population, especially in states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

  • Addressing regional disparities in fertility rates to ensure balanced economic growth.

  • Preparing for the long-term economic implications of a shrinking workforce in low-TFR states.

  • Enhancing healthcare and social security for the growing elderly population.


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