The ICAR-National Institute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (ICAR-NIAP) has published a policy paper titled “Indian Agriculture to 2047 Reshaping Policies for Sustainable Development.” The document highlights the urgent need for policy reforms to meet the anticipated doubling of food demand and a rising preference for nutrition-rich diets, driven by population growth and evolving consumption habits.
Rising Demand For Nutritional Food
By 2047, India’s total food demand is expected to more than double, with a sharp increase in the need for healthier food items such as fruits, vegetables, and animal-based products. For example, fruit demand could reach 233 million tonnes, and vegetables could hit 365 million tonnes, while pulse consumption may double to 49 million tonnes. This reflects a broader transition toward more balanced and health-conscious diets.
Shrinking Farmland and its Challenges
As demand grows, the availability of agricultural land is projected to decline from 180 million hectares to 176 million hectares. The average landholding size is also expected to shrink to just 0.6 hectares, potentially reducing farm profitability and affecting rural livelihoods. A smaller land base and increasing cropping intensity will challenge farmers trying to maintain productivity.
Strategic Resource Allocation
To align with changing dietary demands, India’s agricultural focus must shift from traditional staples like rice and wheat to a more diversified crop mix. Increased investment in fruits, vegetables, pulses, and oilseeds will not only address nutritional needs but also reduce the risk of commodity imbalances in the market.
Economic Growth And Urban Influence
Achieving the goal of becoming a developed economy by 2047 will require India to sustain an 8% annual GDP growth rate. With the population expected to rise to 1.6 billion, and nearly half residing in urban areas, this demographic transition will significantly influence dietary trends and demand for processed, nutrient-rich food.
Environmental Impact And Sustainability
Meeting these food demands will put additional pressure on natural resources. Cropping intensity is likely to rise from 156% to 170%, potentially stressing water and energy systems. Given that agriculture currently uses 83% of India’s freshwater, an estimated 18% increase in water demand by 2047 necessitates a strong push for climate-resilient and sustainable farming practices.
Climate Change: A Looming Threat
Climate variability continues to challenge agricultural growth. In the past 50 years, extreme climate events have caused a 25% drop in productivity gains. Increasing incidents of droughts, floods, and heatwaves are expected to further compromise crop yields and threaten national food security unless mitigated through adaptive strategies.
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