The International Energy Agency (IEA) has recently published the "India Gas Market Report: Outlook to 2030."

Description

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has recently published the "India Gas Market Report: Outlook to 2030." The report highlights that India's natural gas consumption is expected to surge by 60% by 2030, reaching 103 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually, positioning the country among the world's largest consumers. After a prolonged period of sluggish growth, gas demand saw a significant increase of over 10% in 2023 and 2024, signaling a major shift.

Factors Contributing To Rise In Demand

Several key factors are driving the growth in gas consumption, including:

• Expansion of infrastructure such as gas pipelines and CNG stations.

• Increase in domestic gas production.

• Improving conditions in the global gas market.

• Significant contributions from heavy industries, particularly the iron and steel sectors, which together are adding around 15 bcm per year.

Infrastructure Growth

India has made remarkable strides in natural gas infrastructure. Since 2019, the number of CNG stations has grown nearly fourfold, and the number of residential gas connections has more than doubled. Additionally, the gas transmission pipeline network has expanded by 40%. The IEA predicts that by 2030, both CNG stations and residential gas connections will nearly double again, with the gas transmission grid increasing by another 50%.

Domestic Production Vs. Imports

Despite the rising demand, domestic gas production is struggling to keep up. In 2023, domestic production satisfied only 50% of India's natural gas needs. This is expected to rise gradually to just under 38 bcm by 2030. Meanwhile, LNG imports are forecasted to more than double, reaching around 65 bcm annually to meet the growing demand. LNG imports increased by 10% in 2023 and 2024, following a decline in 2022.

Global Market Dynamics

India's increasing gas demand is part of a global trend of growing LNG supply. However, careful planning and market coordination will be vital to ensure a secure supply. By 2028, the gap between contracted LNG supply and India’s projected demand may widen, potentially leaving the country exposed to the volatility of the spot LNG market unless additional contracts are secured.

Future Projections

The IEA suggests that with the right strategies and policy interventions, India’s gas consumption could reach around 120 bcm annually by 2030. This would bring India’s gas consumption to levels comparable to the entire continent of South America today. The ongoing growth in infrastructure and demand signals a significant shift towards natural gas as a primary energy source in India.

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