CURRENT AFFAIRS
CURRENT AFFAIRS
Description
A new study has raised the alarm, suggesting that the Gulf Stream system, also known as AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), could collapse as soon as 2025. AMOC is critical to the Earth's climate system, transporting warm ocean water north and directing the Atlantic currents.
AMOC And Its Vulnerability
AMOC refers to the critical ocean currents that bring warm water to the pole, where it cools and sinks, affecting the circulation of the whole Atlantic. According to researchers, AMOC is currently at its weakest point in 1,600 years, owing primarily to global warming. The deterioration of these currents raises fears about a tipping point, which could lead to collapse.
The Estimated Timetable For AMOC's Collapse
The analysis anticipates a key timeframe for AMOC's collapse ranging from 2025 to 2095. If global carbon emissions continue unabated, the central projection predicts a grave outcome by 2050. Temperature changes of around 10 degrees Celsius were seen during earlier collapses over a few decades, although it is important to emphasize that these occurrences occurred during ice ages.
The After Effects Of AMOC's Collapse
The potential collapse of AMOC would have disastrous consequences for the global climate. Rainfall patterns are predicted to be disrupted in places such as India, South America, and West Africa, affecting billions of people who rely on these rains for food. Furthermore, Europe would see more storms and colder temperatures, while the eastern coast of North America would face rising sea levels. The Amazon jungle and the Antarctic ice sheets would also be threatened.
Climate Change And Risky Tipping Points
The potential collapse of AMOC adds to the litany of catastrophic tipping points created by global warming. According to 2022 research, five tipping points, including the closure of AMOC, the collapse of Greenland's ice cover, and the abrupt melting of carbon-rich permafrost, may have already occurred.
Estimating The Tipping Point
Researchers examined sea surface temperature data dating back to 1870 to assess the possible tipping point. This information was mapped onto the route of systems approaching a "saddle-node bifurcation," revealing information on the possibility of AMOC's collapse.
The Assessment Of The IPCC
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) previously examined AMOC's collapse risk and decided that it would not happen this century. However, researchers warn that these models may be conservative and that more research is needed.
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